Kyle Talks

(#175) How to Change Minds: Polling, Experience & Empathy with Doug Kaplan

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In this episode of Kyle Talks, I sit down with Doug Kaplan, founder of Kaplan Strategies and a veteran public opinion pollster, to dive deep into what really drives people’s beliefs — and how we can talk to one another more thoughtfully. We explore the tension between data and lived experience, what it takes to persuade without dehumanizing, and why understanding public perception matters in every part of our lives.

Doug shares lessons from his career in polling thousands of campaigns, explains how he separates meaningful signals from public noise, and walks us through his perspective on the power of respectful dialogue — even when we strongly disagree.

Key Themes / Talking Points:

  • The real psychology behind how opinions are formed (emotion vs. information)
  • The role of social media in dividing or connecting people
  • How to interpret polling data in a way that doesn’t strip away humanity
  • Why “changing minds” isn’t just about winning arguments — it’s about understanding people
  • Lessons from public opinion work that apply in business, leadership, and culture
  • What gives Doug hope about the future of public conversation

Why You Should Listen:
If you’ve ever wondered why people believe what they do, or how to talk to someone with a totally different worldview, this episode will give you fresh insights and practical wisdom. Whether you care about politics, conversations at work, or just connecting better with people around you — Doug’s experience will challenge and encourage you.

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Intro: Head In The Clouds by Matthew Morelock

Outro: Surfaces Type Beat - Jellyfish Beats


Find Doug here


Send your question in @ KyleTalksPodcast@gmail.com

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SPEAKER_02:

I am so excited. We have a great episode to jump into hello, money. First of all, how you doing? How's the day going? Hope you're doing well. Turn down the volume a little bit. Enjoy this upcoming conversation that I had with Doug Kaplan, who has worked decades in polling public opinion. He's worked in the political offices. He's been on the street talking to people left and right, center, no matter where they are, about their opinions, where they got them from. And in this episode, he tells us everything about how people think, why they think the way they do, and how they get to their opinions. And really what changes minds, evidence or emotion. I have a great conversation with my friend Doug Kaplan. We learned a lot about people. We learned a lot about how to talk across the other aisle, meet people where they're at, and just have conversations and make us talk great again. I'm really happy of the work of the conversation. I'm I think Doug does great work. If you want to check him out, links are in the show notes below. But with that said, let's jump right into my conversation with our friend Doug Kaplan. Okay, Doug Kaplan, welcome to the podcast.

SPEAKER_01:

How are you? Thank you for having me.

SPEAKER_02:

Of course. Thank you for being on. Um, and when I when we were talking, discussing back and forth, what really intrigued me, and just to jump right into it, um, the work you do. So if you could tell us a little bit, what drew you to polling and politics and that kind of world?

SPEAKER_01:

You know, my background was in politics and really advertising. And um I I was um did advertising for the mortgage industry, and I kind of after the 2008 crash, I kind of morphed into pol back into politics, um, what I went to school for. Um, and I and I had the background in advertising. So we started out uh as a political advertising firm, and then polling was something that we added in 2012.

SPEAKER_02:

Um so you're the guy who sends the text messages?

SPEAKER_01:

Is that what that we that's one thing we do direct mail, television, internet advertising? So we we do it all, we do it all. Awesome, awesome. Um knocks on doors.

SPEAKER_02:

Well, oh, you do door, or it's like your team or yeah, team. Oh, okay. Okay, that is I always tell my wife this when we go places door to door. I I will die on the sill. I think that's one of the most character-building things you can do because so many people will tell you no, they'll like write you off, you get a lot of rejection. So I think that's actually I think rejection is good for people.

SPEAKER_00:

Um, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure.

SPEAKER_02:

Yeah, uh um, the this is one of the big ones I want to ask you. I don't mean to hit you with big questions or off the back. Um, but here it is. So in the world and what you do, how you make a living, what's something that someone might misunderstand about how opinions are formed?

SPEAKER_01:

That can they think that politics is more like a crystal ball and it's in the future, versus it's more excuse me, polling is more like a crystal ball and it's in the future, where really it's the current, it's at the moment. Anything can change tomorrow, but currently is where the polls are at at this moment.

SPEAKER_02:

What do you mean by that? I think I'm not missing, I'm not understanding.

SPEAKER_01:

So if I give you a poll in Florida on the Florida governor's race, right? So it's where the race is today. Um, it's not where the race is next week. Next week the results can change because events on the ground are gonna change things. So things happen, you know, things change, etc. So a poll that was taken two weeks before the election is very different than a poll taken the night before the election.

SPEAKER_02:

Interesting. Dow does okay, now I'm interested. Does that the day-to-day stuff happening, does that change? I'd assume yes, but is how does that change like polling and what you do? Do you have to have a strategy? If A happens, I have to do B or if C, etc., etc.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, yeah. I mean, if you you know you're doing it for a campaign, you might do many polls. Um, you're looking, you know, to start with where you start, and then you know you want to see if different advertising is working. Uh, you might do something at the end, and then you might do something, you know, if there's a big event that happens.

SPEAKER_02:

Gotcha. And do you plan for these things, or is it just like you've okay, okay.

SPEAKER_01:

It's all part of the campaign plan.

SPEAKER_02:

Gotcha, gotcha. And you know, the podcast, um, we're focused on having conversations even when you vehemently disagree with someone. Um, and one of the beautiful things, I think is beautiful at least, you can pick and choose who you have a conversation with or who you interact with. And I think this is apparently so in the world of in your world, and polling politics, because there's so much, whether how you were raised, what school you went to, what you consume as a consumer as far as information and things like that. So, one of my big questions from you when it comes to opinions and polling and things like that, what changes opinions? Is it evidence? Is it opinions? Is it how they say the opinions in your experience?

SPEAKER_01:

I think evidence is is is one thing. I think it's um building, you know, building a name recognition, uh, building a narrative, uh, compare and contrast, all those different things.

SPEAKER_02:

So if I'm uh just Kyle and I go to vote and whatever it is, could let's say for the sake of the argument, I I'm right um for the argument politically. Would anything the left or the right, depending where you are, can say can they say anything or do anything to change my opinion, or am I just set in my ways that you've seen?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I think of course. I think of course uh on what the issues are, and especially on damn down ballor races, you might not um remember anything about the down baller race except the sign that you saw. So it's all about you know, it's all about it depends on the race that you're working on, um, from president to city councilman, um, but it's all about building name recognition and and building that story, you know, telling a story of the campaign and why people should vote for you.

SPEAKER_02:

So even if, with that in mind, then so even if um there's there's excuse me, evidence presented, whatever, if this individual builds, like, here's my name, etc. etc., here's what I believe in, that can win people like permanently. Like, oh, I am always there's nothing that can change my mind. I know this person, I know their brand. That person can't be changed. You're in your mind.

SPEAKER_01:

It's hard. That's why incumbents generally win. You know, okay.

SPEAKER_02:

I am a little ignorant. I don't know what that is.

SPEAKER_01:

Like someone who's already in office, they generally don't lose, they generally keep winning. Like congressmen or governors, you know, some governors have term limits, but generally, if you're in office already, you generally keep winning because people people might not like Congress, but they like their elected officials, they like their own congressmen.

SPEAKER_02:

Okay, so okay, that's I mean, I've seen that, so that makes sense. So when turn when it comes to when it comes to rerunning and they always win, let's go on that. I want to open that up a little more. So there is no people like, oh, let's say it's John Doe. I really like John Doe. He's ran for the past five, whatever it is, years. I'm just gonna vote for him. If I'm John Doe, do I have to speak on anything different? Do I have to change minds, or I just have to keep the current people, supporters I currently have?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, you have to keep the supporters, remind people about the future, remind people of what you've done, of what you have done for them. Um, you know, there's almost a 90% chance that someone gets re-elected, the way districts are drawn and stuff like that. So it's it's so it's it re-election is is it's very hard to go to the end's incumbent. They have fundraising advantages, it's all types of things. Um, that's why you generally see the same elected officials always. Usually about 10% of the races are competitive.

SPEAKER_02:

Only 10% are competitive. So if if I'm I'm I'm Jane Doe going against John Doe, I have a way more up with battle because John Doe has been in it for five plus years. How can I break that if I'm that person? And though the perspective I want us to keep is talking to people, regardless of wherever they land and having that conversation. If I'm trying to have conversation with people who maybe disagree, maybe agree, but this person has ran for X amount of years. Do I really have a chance?

SPEAKER_01:

You you do, it's not a great chance, but you do. That's why I said there's about a 90% re-elect rate. But you know, it depends on the election, depends if people want change, a little luck is involved. Uh, depends who the candidate is, uh, depends how you can fundraise, how your grassroots is. Um, so there's so many factors that that matter.

SPEAKER_02:

Interesting. So, what changes people's opinion over time then? Like maybe we do need a change, or maybe it's a day-to-day event, or how does that happen?

SPEAKER_01:

I I find you have to keep keep hitting that same message of change.

SPEAKER_02:

What do you mean?

SPEAKER_01:

Well, you you know, you have to keep hitting the same message to people that you want change, and I'm the change candidate, and I'm a change candidate because of this, and you know, Bill Jones is the reason we need term limits because he's been there so long, and and and all of and you know, all that.

SPEAKER_02:

I would definitely agree with that part. Um I'm very curious now with what you've said and what you've seen. I've already learned stuff, we're not that far into it. Uh with how do you think Kyle talks? The podcast is a gold audience. We care about crossing the divide. Understanding maybe this person has a point I disagree with, and maybe I might think they're vile. Um, maybe I don't like their point of opinion, and that makes me not like the person. How does that translate to polling? Like, I don't not sure if I'm articulating what I my question here, but it's like, yeah, go ahead.

SPEAKER_01:

Um, I think you'll answer, you know, there's there's generally scales on how how much you dislike an issue or how how strongly you oppose an issue. So if you vehemently dislike something, you you'll rate something higher. You know what I'm saying? So you'll be more likely to strongly oppose than somewhat oppose something or somebody.

SPEAKER_02:

So then what changes people's if if that's the idea and you've seen it, you're the expert, I trust you. Um, I don't know, obviously. I think that's clear. How do you, if someone strongly disagree on whatever the issue is, you can pick, how do they go from strongly disagree to disagree to neutral to wait a minute, I think I actually agree. Is that from social media and personalities, or is that more from political candidates?

SPEAKER_01:

It's very hard. I mean, think of it like this getting someone to buy a Samsung instead of if they're an Apple user, you know, switching them from using iPhone to Android, or vice versa. People are generally um set set in it set in their ways. So, like in a presidential election, cross you might have a guy that voted for, let's say, Biden, and then a very, very small percentage voted for Trump this time, but they changed over. You know, really it's about turnout and turning your people out and getting your groups of people to turn out for someone like Trump, it's getting people in rural America to turn out. If for someone like uh Biden or Harris who ran last time, it's getting you know people in the cities to turn out. So at higher levels, let's say than they turned out last time.

SPEAKER_02:

Interesting. So then if I'm following and I'm understanding what you're saying correctly, they get their main supporter base using the last president of the duck, for example, um, rural cities. You I feel like you definitely have information of where you're most liked, especially if you're going for a president. With that in mind, then you try to rally your base, whatever that may look like for each. And then it sounds like what can change minds there is people. Maybe, maybe the candidate for sure, and maybe I could be wrong, and you can correct me, but it sounds like the candidate can, sure, but it sounds like the people reiterating what the candidate is saying.

SPEAKER_01:

Uh yeah, I think that's the that's the that's the key thing, you know, and keep you know, you keep you you hone in on two or three things and you keep repeating it and repeating it and repeating it, and it's issues that get in, you know, that that that that get into people's minds, and and and you know, and it's it could be cultural issues, it could be financial issues, uh, you know, economic issues, kitchen table issues, so those things, you know.

SPEAKER_02:

Okay, so the link here sounds like it's people ultimately when it I mean, of course there's other outside forces, but it sounds like people change people's mind on whatever that may be. Okay. How do you I'm not there's a hard hitter, how do you get around those? If someone's like full stonewall bricked, I will not move, is that a good place to be, in your opinion, as an individual?

SPEAKER_01:

I think it's about 30% uh of the population, 35% of the population that's you know, will not move, and then it gets somewhat moved, you know, it's another fifth 15, 20, 15, 20. I think it's about five to seven people that you can really swing out of like a state or in like what's the the country. Wow, five to seven people. Okay, five to seven percent, yeah.

SPEAKER_02:

Wow. How and I know you've talked about it more, about I want to stay on this train of thought. How do you I know we talked about people, message, hitting the same message, being resolute so people can like and it's a person, it's like it's just crazy to me because like they you know, we all get sick, we all have to use the restroom, etc. But people like to look at these people, especially in the political scene, and say this is what they stand for, almost like a god in some senses, and they follow that. Question staying on this thought is changing how to win people over. What does that look like? I know we discussed people, or if you can kind of draw that out a bit more.

SPEAKER_01:

You gotta try to influence people. It doesn't always have to be in positive messages, but you you have to try to influence people on what they what they care about, and you can you can change minds.

SPEAKER_02:

What do you mean by it doesn't always have to be positive messages? Like what is positive? What does that look like? What's the option?

SPEAKER_01:

You see campaigns that might have negative messaging. You see some, you know, you see positive messages, but you also see negative messaging. Um negative messaging does a couple of things. One, it it it it rallies your own supporters, two, it kind of keep so it might not turn people over for you, but it might keep them on the sidelines. Um doesn't always work, but sometimes it does.

SPEAKER_02:

Okay. Okay. It's hard to think what we're trying to break through. Uh we need to talk to people again. Um, and and I'm younger, I say on the podcast I'm 28. I'm there's still things I don't know, but I think people are tired of um outrage your XYZ based on these beliefs that I may or agree or disagree, probably disagree, so I'm gonna label you these things. Is that helpful in the polling world? Like, is that oh, these guys are a slam dunk, I can get them easily, or is it like stressful? Like, oh, I don't know how I'm gonna get these guys, like they're are they just written off, you can't.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, polling, we just provide results, and then the candidate does what they want to do with it, you know.

SPEAKER_02:

I see.

SPEAKER_01:

They read the results, and then they go, Okay, well, that these are the issues, these are the results, these are I'm gonna I'm gonna listen or I'm not gonna listen, you know. I mean the scientific methods, and you give them the and you give them the results, and then the candidate decides, okay, am I gonna have positive messages, negative messages? Am I gonna try to run to the middle, or am I gonna have a base election and focus on my base and turning out more people in my base? That's why you see Trump so artful in in politics, he's able to turn out his base more and more people each year. He's on the each time he's on the ballot because he's able to he focuses on issues that his base cares about. Um Bill Clinton was so artful because he was able to turn out people in the middle, um, because he he focused on the the middle ground. So it just depends on the person and the year we're in and where the country is, and just so many factors.

SPEAKER_02:

From what you see, and I know there's a lot of factors. Does like you're saying with the bass stuff, bass rallies, trying to? I mean, say whatever whatever people are listening to this, whatever you feel about Trump, he obviously knows how to get it like the rallies, the song, the little dance thing, the meme thing. So it's like it's clear. Regardless of how you feel about him, he knows how to work his base, his base supporters. Is that beneficial? Like, how can because you have to win other people the middle, right? Or do you only have to win your base as a candidate?

SPEAKER_01:

I mean, there's a couple of ways to go about it, but yes, if you just win your base, and right now it's kind of a 50-50 country, you know, meaning what? It's 50% one side, 50% the other side. So it's a very, it's a very close, it's a very close electorate. So the key is just turning out people that that that agree with you. Um Trump won 51% of the Trump won by 1% of the vote last time. So, you know, it was not a landslide victory or anything like that. He won by a lot more in electoral college. That's a whole another conversation. Um, but but you know, so it, you know, it's it's it's it's it's it's different candidates do different things, you know. Uh you look at George Bush, the his first his first campaign, he tried to bring people in. Then the second campaign, he ran, he focused on his cultural issues and focused on his base, and he won re-election. So that's kind of how it's done.

SPEAKER_02:

Yeah. So then how do we? I know we've talked about politics a lot, those people, but the main message, it's unfortunate a lot of this conversation stuff's around politics. I feel like it wasn't always like that. I feel like, or maybe it was, but as I got older, it feels like that's been more one of my questions for you that I'm asking of everyone has because we're discussing politics. Has politics always been this so divisive? Or if I in your opinion, whatever that is, what you've seen personally, like did it ramp up in like 2016, or has it always been like that? And I just as a kid, I never paid attention.

SPEAKER_01:

I think it's always been extremely divisive. I mean, you go back to John Adams and Thomas Jefferson. Um, I think social media has amplified it, yeah. So it's kind of in your face more, but it's always been extremely divisive, and it's it's it's it's it's always has been. You know, there's only certain there's only been 44, 45 presidents, so there's there's there's um there's a lot of competition for it.

SPEAKER_02:

And this comes down to lower levels too, like uh I know Congress is big, but for like local government, is that same mentality kind of persist or is it a little different?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, people find it out on a local level. You'd be you'd you'd be surprised. Really?

SPEAKER_02:

I feel like there's stories there.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, and you know, people they know each other, they live in a neighborhood, so they see each other outside in public, and it's just such very, very interesting. Local politics a little bit more personal.

SPEAKER_02:

Okay, so okay, I'm just digesting. Um, so seeing that it's always been like this, what's the divide? Like, and you're what you've seen just personally in your work, how do we cross that divide? Like, hey, I disagree on this, you are super for it, whatever that is, or vice versa. How do you make that connection without being like, because today, oh, you believe this? You're a bigot, I hate you, you're annoying. And I don't think that's productive, like in the slightest. You can have those feelings, but I don't think that's productive. How can I reach across based on your experience and have a conversation with someone that may be opposed to whatever I agree or disagree with?

SPEAKER_01:

I think you can have a conversation with most people. You you'd you'd be surprised. Um, the hardliners on both parties are are just a percentage of people. It's not a 50 percentage, it's a certain percentage of people who are just 100% set in their ways. They don't want to talk to you. But I think most people are, most Americans are reasonable one way or the other. And then it comes down, it just comes down to other issues, socioeconomical, it comes down to you know, education, so many different things.

SPEAKER_02:

Okay. So it sounds like then social media has made it, like you said earlier, made it kind of put it more in your face to make it seem more divisive or controversial than it is. Because if you talk to someone on the street, it sounds like they'd be cool, but on social media it's not that way, right?

SPEAKER_01:

Right. I mean, it's social media has just amplified it, and it's you know, everyone, everyone is there. Used to be three um media companies. Now everyone is a journalist, right? Yeah, can have a podcast or whatever, yeah. And and it's just so so so much in your face now, and um people see it. I think people have a much more of a uh I don't know if they have more knowledge, but more of an interest in it now. Um, and people are much more invested in it in politics right now.

SPEAKER_02:

I saw this video. Um, all this lines up perfectly to what we're talking about, where it was, I don't it was a long time ago, but it was this video. This guy, um, it was all animated, he was like watching stuff, scrolling YouTube, and it was for some fake idea for the video, but it like changed his mind and changed the mind and changed his mind. Of course, it's all over social media, and then he was, I think the word is radicalized, like what by this fake idea on this video, and then he went to go do pretty unfortunate things. But my curious, uh that video, even as I think I saw as a teenager in high school, and I was like, wow, that is fast forward 10 plus years. Here we are still the same. I think that video is very much true. Do you think that's reality? Like, is that a real case thing for most people? They get indoctrinated by whatever it is.

SPEAKER_01:

Definitely a percentage of the population does for sure. Um, they get radicalized, and I don't think that's a high percentage, but I think it's enough to cause problems.

SPEAKER_02:

What do you mean by enough to cause like for individuals, for candidates? Let's assume they don't do anything weird.

SPEAKER_01:

Individual people, yeah, where where people go down rabbit holes and all that. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02:

Do you so just your opinion? Do you think that's helpful for people? Do you think that is good for people? Like, do you think wherever whatever side doesn't matter?

SPEAKER_01:

I don't know. I mean, I don't want to tell people what to how to live their life. I think for me, I try to get information from all different sources, yeah, you know, left, right, center, so I can kind of judge it for myself. Because I don't I don't think the media really tells the truth per se. Yeah, um, so or they have an agenda. Um, so I think you know, if if if you invest your time in all sides and reading it, you can make your own decisions.

SPEAKER_02:

I would agree. And what's crazy about that, Doug, is a lot of people will hear that. Um, I know I face backlash for having these ideas. Um, it's unfortunate because I am not a political commentator, but I do value conversation. I want people to talk to you wherever you land, it's up to you, it's your prerogative. But we have to talk to each other more. And if and just to agree with you, I do think social media has, especially in comment sections and emails. I've seen it, or it's like, oh, you don't degree agree or disagree. I'm gonna call I've been called the worst names in the book, so it's like how that divide needs to change. I don't know, maybe maybe I'm ignorant and bit a bit naive. Your thoughts on that.

SPEAKER_01:

No, I think you're 100% right. There's so much venomous uh out there, you know, keyboard warriors that are out there that say what they want. They would never have an ad, they would never have a forum before social media to say some of these things, you know.

SPEAKER_02:

I heard that too. This is we what is that here? The platform. Now they have a platform, regardless of how many people follow or etc., they have a platform now, and they can push out this rhetoric, whatever that may be. Um, they can have that now. And since there's no face, it's like I can say that I can, it's easier to dehumanize you. That's what it feels like.

SPEAKER_01:

I think so. Yeah, that's exactly it.

SPEAKER_02:

That so I know we're coming at time, and I'm gonna be respectful um of your time. Um, we do thank you so much, Doug, by the way. Thank you. Um, I do this thing, I it's continuing the conversation. I like to ask every guest your thoughts on, then you would give me your thoughts on whatever that is, and then you give me a prompt for the next guest. So they'll answer. You get to start it. Um, so Doug, can you give me your thoughts on people?

SPEAKER_01:

I think that um that people are very complicated, but in in the end, we all you know bleed red, right? Yeah, and I think you know, most of us get get along, you know. And um, I think my prompt for this for the next guest would be how do you change people?

SPEAKER_02:

I like that. It's like you're reading my mind. I like that. Your thoughts on changing people, I like that. Well, Doug, thank you for being on Royal Talks. Thank you so much. I appreciate you. Thank you. Thank you.

SPEAKER_01:

It's a great segment, bye-bye.

SPEAKER_02:

And everyone, that is our conversation with Doug. I really hope you learned a lot. Um, yeah, I had a great time with Doug. Um, as we said, this was supposed to be in person, so I'm sorry I forgot. I guess I didn't have a record, even though I thought I did, but I still hope you got something out of value of this conversation. Let me tell you what I got quickly. Talking to people matters. We learned that it's a mix of both. Evidence, here's why I'm right, but how you say it, how you break it to them, how you present it is almost more important than the evidence itself, which was really interesting. Um, and I really got a lot. And that's something I think I can think about a lot um in this episode in life. When I go and I speak to people who I agree with, who I don't agree with, who are indifferent. There's lots to learn here. And I hope you got something of value too. Thank you for the thank you for joining us today. Thank you for being in the conversation with Doug. Um, again, if you want to know more about Doug's work, maybe you want to have him run a political campaign. I hear he's the guy for it. Um, you can check out his links in the show notes down below. But guys, the podcast is growing. Thank you guys so much. I mean, we are on top charts for like personal and finance. We're we're trailblazing. That's because people want to have conversations again. And this conversation with Doug, I think was just the start. Just the start of who we'll get to talk to and what it means for us going forward. If you would like to help us in that endeavor, please go ahead and leave a review. Um, wherever you're listening to this podcast, like it. Share this episode out with somebody somewhere on um Instagram, TikTok, X, wherever you're at, Kyle the Horton. Um, I would love it if you guys did. Thank you guys so much. Let's keep having better conversations. Let's talk to each other and let's be the change. We're starting right here, right now. And there's already a lot of you who say, Yeah, I'm here for it. So let's keep going. Help us spread the mission, help us keep going. And if no one has told you this yet, one person died for you because he could not imagine eternal life without you. And that man's name is Jesus Christ. I'll see you guys next time on Cloud Talks. Hope you enjoy. Peace.